You Asked for It: Natural Gas Fear & Greed Is Live

Every week for months, the same request rolled in.

"When are you doing natural gas?"

"Build the same model for nat gas."

"You have it for gold, silver, miners, Bitcoin — what about NG?"

Every. Single. Week.

So we built it. The Natural Gas Fear & Greed Index is now live.

A 0–100 contrarian score for Henry Hub front-month, calibrated against every major cycle since 1990 — the 1996 winter spike, the 2000 California energy crisis, the 2005 Katrina peak, the 2008 commodity blow-off, the 2020 COVID washout, the 2022 Freeport/EU squeeze. All of it. Updated hourly.

Open the indicator →

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Why Natural Gas Needed Its Own Model

You can't just take the gold model and slap natural gas data on it. We tried. It doesn't work.

Gold runs on real yields and central bank flows. Bitcoin runs on flows + sentiment cycles. Natural gas runs on storage, weather, and global LNG flows — and the cycles are violent in ways gold simply doesn't do.

Gas can drop 80% from peak to trough. Then triple in twelve months. Then drop 70% again. The 2008 → 2012 → 2014 sequence: $13.58 → $1.91 → $6.15. The 2020 → 2022 sequence: $1.48 → $9.68. +554% in 26 months.

A model built for gold's 2-year cycles will saturate during these moves. It'll show "extreme greed" for two years before the actual top. Useless.

So we calibrated specifically for natural gas. Different volatility bounds. Different weighting. A regime-aware modifier that incorporates oil shocks, money supply, real yields, and policy uncertainty — because nat gas is wildly sensitive to the macro picture in ways gold isn't.

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What It Actually Catches

Eight major structural bottoms since 1995. We hand-labeled them: 1995, 1999, 2002, 2006, 2012, 2016, 2020, 2024.

Our score reached the deep-buy zone (≤13) at every single one of them.

The worst miss across all eight bottoms? Score reading of 16 — still in fear territory. The best? Zero. The 2020 COVID bottom at $1.48 scored a perfect 0.0.

Top side is harder — natural gas tops are violent and short. But we still hit the high-greed zone (≥80) in 6 of 7 cycles. The model knows when sentiment has gone parabolic.

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What It's Telling Us Right Now

Here's where it gets interesting.

Two weeks ago, on April 23, 2026, the score touched 6.1 at $2.52. Deep buy zone. The rare territory that's historically marked every major bottom.

Then in just 10 trading days it bounced back to ~29. That's an unusually fast recovery — faster than any historical analog we have on file.

Meanwhile, the macro setup is louder than it's been in years. Oil rallied 74% in 60 days before pulling back to $96. Policy uncertainty (EPU index) sits at 374, deeply elevated. Geopolitical premium is real.

Yet natural gas is still at $2.82.

Every other major oil shock since 1990 (1990 Gulf, 2008 commodity spike, 2014 Russia-Crimea, 2022 Russia-Ukraine) saw natural gas catch up. Sometimes it took months. Sometimes weeks. But it caught up.

So either:

• The shale-era US oversupply has finally decoupled gas from global energy stress (genuine new regime), or
• Gas is lagging and the catch-up move is still ahead

The score won't tell you which. But it tells you exactly when sentiment has reached cyclical extremes — and historically, that's the only thing worth knowing.

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How to Use It

Same as the rest of our Fear & Greed family.

Buy zones:

• ≤25 → start building exposure
• ≤13 → high-conviction window (every major bottom hit this)
• ≤5 → rare extreme, once-per-decade

Sell zones:

• ≥65 → trim
• ≥80 → late-cycle territory
• ≥90 → harvest

The page shows you the exact zone you're in, your forward-return statistics from that zone (computed live from history), and the recent fear-cluster context. No black box. The data does the talking.

Updated every hour during market hours. Free. No login required.

Open Natural Gas Fear & Greed →

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What's Next

You asked. We delivered. If there's another asset class you want this for — copper, uranium, oil itself, ag commodities — drop us a line. The infrastructure is built. New variants are days of work, not months.

The list of requests from the community is what built this site. Keep them coming.