Market News & Insights
Analysis and commentary on precious metals markets and our Fear & Greed indicator
You Asked for It: Natural Gas Fear & Greed Is Live
The most-requested indicator we've ever shipped is here. A 0–100 contrarian score for Henry Hub natural gas — calibrated against every major cycle since 1990. And right now, it's telling us something interesting.
Poland Bought Its Gold at $2,370 an Ounce — It's Now $4,040, and the NBP Isn't Selling
Poland's central bank just revealed a 127.5 billion złoty unrealized gain on its gold. Work backwards and you get the number central banks almost never share: an average cost near $2,370 an ounce. Gold is now $4,040.
The Super El Niño Is Coming for Your Gas Trade. The Data Says: Relax.
The internet is selling a climate apocalypse. NOAA's official index just printed +0.48. Both the doomers and the energy bulls are wrong about what a warming Pacific does to natural gas — and our own 35-year seasonality split shows exactly which month actually bleeds.
Sell by July: China Just Ordered Its Savers Out of Gold
China's largest state banks just ordered retail clients to close their gold positions by July 24th. The stated reason is 'risk management.' The real one is a property crash and a deflation spiral Beijing needs them spending their way out of.
Grading the Miners: How We Score Gold & Silver Producers — and Who Topped Q1
Wall Street gives you buy/hold/sell theater. We read the actual quarterly disclosures and grade 23 gold and silver miners on quality and momentum, 0 to 100. Here's how it works — and the leaderboard.
Is the Gold Bottom In? The 'Iran Off-Ramp,' the Midterm Trap, and the $4,040 Line
Gold didn't fall because the bull run died. It fell because it was the only thing liquid enough to sell. Now, with a ceasefire on the table and the midterms looming, the question is where the floor really sits.
Natgas Just Cracked to Extreme Fear at $2.50. The Last Two Times That Happened With the Fed on Pause, It Was 2008 or 2019.
Henry Hub crashed from $7 to $2.50 while the Bullion Fear & Greed for natural gas hit 6.1 — below the 5th percentile of all history. The setup has two clean analogs. One produced a 5x. One produced a year of pain. But this time gas is already $1.40 below where the analogs started — the crash has already happened.
The End of the Exorbitant Privilege: Why Physical Bullion Has Never Looked This Good
The Fed isn't fighting fires anymore — it's the arsonist. From 7.55% CRE delinquencies to halted private credit redemptions and de-dollarization in real time, the case for physical gold isn't theoretical. Here's what the cracks look like in numbers.
Poland Just Hit 580 Tonnes of Gold — And They're Not Done
Poland's central bank announced it now holds 580 tonnes of gold — a +132 tonne increase in twelve months, making it the world's top buyer. Their target? 700 tonnes. Here's what this means for gold.
How to Spot a Blow-Off Top Before the Crash: A Complete Guide
January 30th wasn't a black swan—every indicator was flashing red. This complete guide shows you exactly how to spot the next blow-off top using RSI, sentiment, the Gold/Silver ratio, and historical patterns from 1980 and 2011.
Are Gold Miners Halfway Through a Supercycle — Or About to Crash?
GDX is up 452% from its 2022 low. The Miner Sentiment Meter is flashing Overvalued. But every prior supercycle looked exactly like this before doubling again. We break down what's happening, what history says, and what to watch — in plain English.
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