Natural Gas Fear & Greed; cycle-aware sentiment.
A 0–100 contrarian score for Henry Hub front-month, calibrated against every major cycle since 1990. Below 13 has flagged every structural bottom (winter spike, polar vortex, COVID, Freeport). Above 80 has aligned with cycle exhaustion. Updated hourly during market hours.
Building tension; not yet a buy signal. Wait for deeper fear or watch for confirmation rally.
Score reached 6.1 on 2026-04-23 at $2.52 (88 days ago). Across 880 historical days in this zone, 43% were positive at 1 year (avg +14%); 27% positive at 2 years (avg -15%).
Score & price history
What each zone has historically delivered
Forward returns from every score zone, computed across 8,277 historical observations since 1992. The score is a leading indicator; this table shows what natural gas typically did from each zone.
| Zone | Days observed | Avg 90d | Avg 1y | Avg 2y | 1y win rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0–13 (Deep Buy) | 1,107 | +16% | +61% | +46% | 84% |
| 14–25 (Fear) | 911 | +6% | +34% | +54% | 80% |
| 26–49 (Lean Fear) | 4,123 | +5% | +16% | +16% | 54% |
| 50–74 (Neutral) | 1,548 | +4% | -9% | -1% | 25% |
| 75–90 (Greed) | 355 | -5% | -38% | -24% | 6% |
| 91–100 (Extreme) | 233 | -21% | -53% | -35% | 0% |
How to read the score
- ≤ 25 — building exposure (lean fear)
- ≤ 13 — high-conviction window (every major bottom)
- ≤ 5 — rare extreme — once per decade
- ≥ 65 — trim aggressive long positioning
- ≥ 80 — late-cycle territory
- ≥ 90 — harvest gains; wait for next cycle
Natural gas cycles are driven by storage, weather, and global LNG flows. The score combines price action with macro context (money supply, real yields, oil, policy uncertainty) to identify when sentiment has reached cyclical extremes. Use it as one input alongside your own analysis — not a standalone trade signal.
El Niño conditions present
NOAA's 3-month ONI is +1.0°C (El Niño, rising). Forecasters (NOAA CPC, ECMWF) favor a strong-to-“super” El Niño by winter 2026–27; the weekly Niño-3.4 spot has been running well above the slower 3-month ONI. El Niño winters suppress the Arctic outbreaks across the U.S. Midwest and Northeast that drive heating demand, so the structural bias is bearish for winter gas — milder winter → weaker demand → higher end-of-season storage.
| Month | All winters | El Niño (n=12) |
|---|---|---|
| Sep | +10.2% | +13.3% |
| Oct | +7.3% | +12.8% |
| Nov | +1.4% | -3.1% |
| Dec | -6.2% | -11.1% |
| Jan | -5.5% | -4.5% |
| Feb | -1.9% | +0.8% |
The historical pattern is not "El Niño kills gas." It deepens the early-winter drop — November flips from +1.4% in a typical year to −3.1% across El Niño winters (−10% in the five strongest), and December runs −11.1% vs −6.2%. Yet the autumn buy-the-fear ramp (September–October) has historically been stronger, not weaker: a deeper fall low tends to bounce harder. Storage sitting 6.6% above the 5-year average compounds the bias.
Small sample — 12 El Niño winters (5 strong) since 1990. Context, not a signal. The Fear & Greed score does not ingest weather or ENSO data; it reacts to price and macro only. ONI: NOAA CPC · storage: EIA.