Real estate priced in metal: how many ounces of gold or silver a home costs, and whether that's historically rich or cheap. A relative-value gauge for rotating between property and metals — not investment advice.
Sofia apartment costs 64 oz of gold — the 16th percentile of the last 22 years, so property is historically cheap in metal terms — the side of the range that has favored rotating toward property.
Ounces of gold to buy the flat, each quarter since 2003.
One year after entering each zone, which way the ratio went. Overlapping quarterly samples — context, not odds.
Honest read: the pull back toward the middle is real but usually modest — often not far from a coin flip. It tells you which side of the range you're on, not when it turns.
The richest and cheapest the flat has ever been in gold, 22 years of history — the two ends the ratio rotates between.
Property's most expensive-in-gold reading — real estate stretched to the top of its range. From the rich zone the ratio has historically leaned back down, favouring gold.
Property's cheapest-in-gold reading — real estate at the bottom of its range. From the cheap zone the ratio has historically leaned back up, favouring property.
Right now sofia apartment is cheap in both metals — 64 oz of gold (16th pct) and 3,847 oz of silver (14th pct) over 22 years. In gold terms that's the middle end of the range.
Property being this cheap in metal usually means metals have run hard, not that property is collapsing — a running metals bull can keep the ratio pinned low or push it lower. Read it as “property is historically cheap versus metals,” a reason to stop chasing metal and watch for property to catch up. Mean-reversion here is weak — context, not a trigger.
Auto-generated from the live ratio and its 22-year distribution — updates with the data, not a hand-written call.
How many troy ounces of gold or silver it takes to buy a home — a one-room apartment in central Sofia (since 2003, imot.bg) or the US median-priced home (since 1971, FRED MSPUS). It strips currency out of the picture — it is real estate priced in metal — so you can see when property is historically expensive or cheap relative to the metals, independent of the dollar or euro.
It goes back to 1971, so it spans five decades and several full rotations — the 1980 gold mania (homes dirt cheap in gold), the 2001 peak (homes very expensive in gold, before the metals bull), and the 2011 gold top. That long history makes the zones and percentiles far more robust than a 22-year local sample. The Sofia flat is the local, higher-resolution view.
The shaded bands are the top and bottom quarters of that market’s whole history. When the ratio is high (property expensive in metal, the amber zone) real estate has historically been the rich side of the trade; when it is low (property cheap in metal, the blue zone) metals have been the rich side. The dashed line is the median. It maps where you are in the range — not a buy or sell signal.
Only weakly, and we would rather be honest about it. Coming out of the cheap zone the ratio has leaned up a year later, and down out of the rich zone — but only modestly, on overlapping quarterly samples with few true turns. The panel shows the actual hit-rates for the market and metal you have selected. Treat it as context, not odds.
No. It says nothing about rental income, leverage, taxes, transaction costs or your situation — all of which matter enormously for real estate and none of which are in a price ratio. It is one relative-valuation lens on property versus the metals. Do your own research.
Sofia: imot.bg quarterly trend for a one-room apartment (~63 m²), central Sofia, EUR→USD. US: FRED median sale price of houses sold (MSPUS), quarterly since 1971. Metals: gold & silver spot (USD/oz) from the BullionMarketCap database. The ratio is real estate priced in metal — relative valuation only. It ignores rent, leverage, taxes and transaction costs. Refreshed monthly. Not investment advice.