Gold vs the stock market; whose era is it?
The Gold/SPX ratio prices gold in stock-market units — when it rises, gold is beating equities. The 5-Month TSI below it is a doubly smoothed momentum oscillator: crossovers above its signal line from washed-out levels have marked the start of every major precious metals and commodities bull era since 1971.
Gold eras since 1968
How it works
The True Strength Index takes the 5-month momentum of the Gold/SPX ratio and smooths it twice (25- and 13-month EMAs), normalised to a −100…+100 scale. Double smoothing kills the monthly noise while keeping the turns — which is why the oscillator traces clean multi-year waves instead of chop.
A 12-month EMA of the TSI acts as the signal line. When the TSI crosses above it from deep oversold territory (below −40), the ratio has historically been at or near a generational low: crossings near 1971, 1999, 2016 and 2024 each preceded multi-year runs where gold, miners and commodities massively outperformed paper assets.
Shaded zones mark gold eras — periods where the TSI held above zero for a year or longer. Signals before 1968 are suppressed: gold was pegged at $35 under Bretton Woods, so the ratio's momentum reflected only the equity side. Like every indicator on this site, it's a regime gauge, not a market-timing service.