Gold's 20-day momentum versus its own 1-year range — flagging short-term accumulation and exit / liquidity zones. Not tops and bottoms.
Gold is trading in line with its 20-day trend — no short-term edge in either direction.
Z-score of gold's 20-day change. Green band = accumulation (<−2), red band = exit / liquidity (>+2).
Gold's average forward 30-trading-day (≈6-week) return and hit-rate by zone, since 2005 — the horizon where the edge has been strongest.
| Zone | Reading | Next 30d (avg) | Positive | n |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Extreme accumulation | below −3 | +7.33% | 97% | 29 |
| Deep accumulation | −3 to −2 | +4.15% | 82% | 106 |
| Accumulation | −2 to −1 | +1.53% | 59% | 725 |
| Neutral(now) | −1 to +1 | +1.48% | 57% | 3664 |
| Mild exit | +1 to +2 | +1.05% | 55% | 774 |
| Exit / liquidity | +2 to +3 | +0.54% | 52% | 173 |
| Extreme exit | above +3 | −3.61% | 46% | 28 |
These are accumulation and exit zones, not tops and bottoms. When gold's 20-day momentum is statistically cold (oscillator below −2), the next ~6 weeks (30 trading days) have historically favored accumulation — +4.8% on average, 85% positive; when it's statistically hot (above +2), returns over the same window have been flat-to-negative — a zone to take some liquidity. The extremes are cleanly separated and the accumulation edge holds across the 2013-19 bear (+3.0%, 71% positive) as well as the 2020-26 bull (+3.3%, 86%). Two honest caveats: the oscillator can stay stretched in strong trends, and at major lows it is often early — in 2022 it read oversold months before gold's actual bottom. Use it to scale in and out, not to time the exact turn.
This page reads gold's 20-day rate-of-change, standardized against its own past year (a z-score). Below −2 is deeply oversold (accumulation zone); above +2 is deeply overbought (exit/liquidity zone). The live reading and zone are shown at the top.
We take gold's 20-trading-day percentage change, then express it as a z-score versus the trailing 252 trading days (≈1 year). A reading of +2 means gold's 20-day momentum is two standard deviations hotter than its typical range; −2 means two standard deviations colder.
No — they are accumulation and exit zones, not turning points. Historically, deeply oversold readings have preceded favorable ~6-week (30-trading-day) returns (+4.8% average, ~85% positive) and deeply overbought readings flat-to-negative ones, but the oscillator can stay stretched in strong trends and is often early at major lows. In 2022 it flagged oversold months before gold's actual bottom. Use it to scale in and out, not to call the exact turn.
Measured on gold since 2005, the 30-trading-day horizon (≈6 weeks) shows the strongest edge and it is robust across 2005-12, the 2013-19 bear, and 2020-26: deep-oversold averaged +4.8% (85% positive) versus deep-overbought roughly flat (−0.0%, 51% positive) and neutral +1.5%. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Historical zone statistics are gold's average forward 30-trading-day return and hit-rate since 2005. Past performance does not guarantee future results. This is a descriptive indicator, not investment advice.