Every major bull run in the broad commodity complex (CRB index) since 1980 — trough to peak. A 30% reversal filter isolates the real cycles from the noise.
Log scale. Green bands = bull runs (trough→peak); the brightest band is the run in progress.
| Trough → Peak | Duration | CRB | Gain |
|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 2020 → nowin progress | 6.0 yr | 106→381 | +258.8% |
| Feb 2016 → May 2018 | 2.3 yr | 155→206 | +33.1% |
| Mar 2009 → Apr 2011 | 2.2 yr | 200→371 | +85% |
| Feb 1999 → Jul 2008 | 9.4 yr | 118→474 | +301.3% |
| Jul 1986 → Oct 1997 | 11.3 yr | 99→206 | +107.5% |
Measured on the Thomson Reuters/CoreCommodity CRB index (daily, 1980–present). A "bull run" is a confirmed trough→peak move where the index later reversed by at least 30% — so minor corrections don't fragment a cycle. The earliest run is bounded by the start of our data. Not investment advice.