Bitcoin's price versus its 200-day average (the Mayer Multiple) — flagging cycle accumulation and euphoria / distribution zones. A months-horizon cycle tool, not a swing signal.
Bitcoin is below its 200-day average — a favorable accumulation tilt (+22% average, 58% positive over ~6 months).
Price ÷ 200-day average since 2017. Green = below the 200-day average (accumulation); red = euphoria (> 2.4). Note how each cycle top has printed a lower peak as Bitcoin matures. Hover for the exact reading; drag the slider to zoom.
Bitcoin's average forward 180-trading-day (≈6-month) return and hit-rate by zone, since 2015. Note the asymmetry: only euphoria is an exit. Hover a zone (ⓘ) to see when Bitcoin was last there and at what price.
| Zone | Mayer | Next ~6mo (avg) | Positive | n |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deep accumulation ⓘ | Mayer < 0.8 | +39% | 59% | 532 |
| Accumulation ⓘ(now) | 0.8 – 1.0 | +22% | 58% | 886 |
| Fair value ⓘ | 1.0 – 1.5 | +66% | 76% | 1942 |
| Hot (extended) ⓘ | 1.5 – 2.4 | +87% | 63% | 570 |
| Euphoria / distribution ⓘ | Mayer > 2.4 | −29% | 5% | 58 |
Bitcoin trends — so this is not a symmetric overbought/oversold gauge like gold. The data is blunt: across 2015–present, the only reliable exit zone has been euphoria — more than 2.4× the 200-day average — which preceded a −29% average over the next six months (just 5% of readings positive). Being merely "hot" (1.5–2.4×) was not a sell: it kept trending (+87% average). The accumulation edge is the mirror image — buying when price is below its 200-day average (Mayer < 1.0), and especially deep below it (< 0.8). Two honest caveats: the accumulation zone is often early (it reads cheap for months before the bottom), and cycle-top Mayer levels have compressed as Bitcoin matures — so cross-check the 200-week multiple. Use it to scale in and out across a cycle, not to time the exact turn.
This page reads the Mayer Multiple — Bitcoin's price divided by its 200-day moving average. Below 1.0 means price is under its 200-day average (accumulation); above 2.4 means it is more than 2.4× the average (euphoria / distribution). The live reading and zone are shown at the top.
Because Bitcoin behaves the opposite way. Gold mean-reverts over weeks — short-term overbought fades. We tested gold's 20-day momentum z-score on Bitcoin and it inverts: overbought BTC kept running (deep-overbought averaged +10.5% over the next 30 days). Bitcoin trends, so the useful read is cycle position versus the 200-day average, not short-term momentum.
Price ÷ the 200-day simple moving average, popularized by Trace Mayer. A value of 1.0 means price sits exactly on its 200-day average; 2.4 means 140% above it. Historically, readings above ~2.4 marked cycle tops and readings below 1.0 marked accumulation.
No — they are accumulation and distribution zones. Euphoria (>2.4) has reliably preceded weak 6-month returns (−29% average, 5% positive), and below-the-200-day has favored accumulation, but the oscillator is often early at bottoms and Bitcoin can stay "hot" for months in a bull run. Use it to scale in and out, not to call the exact turn.
Partly. Cycle-top Mayer Multiples have compressed each cycle (2017 ≈ 3.7, 2021 ≈ 2.8, 2024–25 ≈ 1.8) as volatility falls. So we show the 200-week multiple alongside as a maturity check — Bitcoin has historically bottomed near or just above its 200-week average and topped several multiples above it.
Historical zone statistics are Bitcoin's average forward 180-trading-day (≈6-month) return and hit-rate since 2015, measured from daily price history. Past performance does not guarantee future results. This is a descriptive indicator, not investment advice.