Indicators

Capital Rotation

Silver and gold priced in S&P 500 units. When the line peaks, metals are dominant — these are the historical metals-bull tops (1980, 2011). When the line bottoms, stocks have crowded out metals — dot-com 2000, COVID 2020 — the starting conditions for every major rotation into precious metals. As of 2026-06-05.

Silver / S&P 500
9.6
as of 2026-06-05 · -17.0% (90d)
percentile 26
z-score -0.78
Stocks favored
Ratio is low — stocks have been outperforming metals. Rotation opportunity is building.
all-time high
340.8 (1877-01)
all-time low
3.3 (2000-08)
Gold / S&P 500
0.6
as of 2026-06-05 · -17.8% (90d)
percentile 34
z-score -0.64
Stocks favored
Ratio is low — stocks have been outperforming metals. Rotation opportunity is building.
all-time high
5.9 (1980-01)
all-time low
0.2 (2000-08)

Silver / S&P 500

Silver price relative to the S&P 500 (× 1000 for readability). Visual peaks = silver outperforming stocks (1980 Hunt, 2011 post-GFC); troughs = stocks dominant (2000 dot-com, 2020 COVID).

Silver / S&P 500 × 1000 (higher = silver favored) · log scale · markers = historical extremes
Monthly ratioMetals peak (take-profit zone)Equity peak (rotation buy zone)

Gold / S&P 500

Gold price relative to the S&P 500. Visual peaks = gold dominant (1980 Volcker-era, 2011 post-GFC, rising now); troughs = equity dominance (2000 dot-com).

Gold / S&P 500 (higher = gold favored) · log scale · markers = historical extremes
Monthly ratioMetals peak (take-profit zone)Equity peak (rotation buy zone)

Returns by rotation window

What rotation looked like in practice. Total price return (not dividends) of each asset across defined windows. Silver and gold trounced stocks from the dot-com top through the 2011 metals peak; stocks took back the lead from 2011 onward.

2000 → 2011 (post-dotcom rotation into metals) · 2000-012011-12
assetstartendreturn
Silver (XAG)5.1927.86+436.8%
Gold (XAU)282.401564.60+454.0%
S&P 500 (SPX)1394.461257.60-9.8%
2011 → 2015 (metals bear market, stock bull) · 2011-042015-12
assetstartendreturn
Silver (XAG)47.9113.84-71.1%
Gold (XAU)1563.001061.19-32.1%
S&P 500 (SPX)1363.612043.94+49.9%
2015 → today (current cycle) · 2015-122026-06
assetstartendreturn
Silver (XAG)13.8472.75+425.7%
Gold (XAU)1061.194464.90+320.7%
S&P 500 (SPX)2043.947584.31+271.1%

COMEX Positioning

Managed Money net long as % of open interest (weekly CFTC). Low percentiles are contrarian buy zones (washed-out longs); high percentiles flag crowded trades at reversal risk.

Gold · MM net long
35.2%
2026-05-26 · 303 t net long
3y pctl 57
full pctl 69
z-score +0.58
Neutral / mid-range
all-time high
49.7% (2016-08)
all-time low
14.7% (2018-11)
Silver · MM net long
16.4%
2026-05-26 · 1564 t net long
3y pctl 11
full pctl 6
z-score -1.44
Washed-out — contrarian buy zone
all-time high
51.9% (2017-04)
all-time low
9.1% (2026-02)
Managed Money net long · CFTC Disaggregated · weekly since 2006